I'll Tumble For Ya
Premier Susan Holt has her first major dip in public approval
Polling has been scant in New Brunswick politics — public polling, at least — but last week the Angus Reid Institute delivered numbers that had everyone talking.
More respondents disapproved than approved (49-41) of the premier’s performance. It’s early for mid-mandate assessments, and we don’t know what led to these results, but they are not good news for the Liberals.
Read the full Angus Reid Institute release here, with links to detailed results and methodology.
As I mentioned on the Shift New Brunswick political panel Friday, this is not a poll of voting intentions. If that 49-per-cent disapproval split between two parties, 41 per cent would be enough to win. Parties have taken power with a lot less.
Still, interim PC leader Glen Savoie was in a good mood Friday.
The session wrapped up with royal assent for more than two dozen bills, including one law that paves the way for promised legislation on pay equity in the private sector.
The story that got generated the most buzz from the legislature, however, wasn’t a bill but Premier Holt’s letter to Mark Carney on banning kids under 16 from social media — just before the feds introduced their bill.
Here’s a BBC story on how Australia’s ban works and here’s The New York Times on how it’s going so far.
One Standard to Rule Them All
In the 2024 election, Susan Holt said she wanted a more “robust” carbon price on big industrial emitters of greenhouse gases. Last May, after Mark Carney won the federal election on a platform that included keeping the federal pricing standard in place, Holt said she would move ahead with those changes.
Then came Carney’s energy deal with Alberta, which included a weaker and longer-time pricing standard that the prime minister quickly extended to other provinces.
And just like that, Holt’s campaign commitment was dropped.
My story linked above mentions N.B. Power had to pay more for its higher emissions in 2024, which brings us to CEO Lori Clark’s appearance at the legislature’s public accounts committee last week. PC MLAs including Rob Weir gave her a rough ride.
Lots of fodder for Shift and Café Politique:
Beaulac’s Back
Back in March I took a look at three recent court rulings that might indicate a narrowing of the interpretation of New Brunswick language rights.
Well, guess what: Beaulac’s back.
Beaulac was a 1999 Supreme Court of Canada ruling that said language rights must be interpreted broadly, and on Friday the court invoked it repeatedly when it ruled that the Charter of Rights requires that New Brunswick’s lieutenant-governor be bilingual.
The court noted in its ruling that it was weighing in on some Charter provisions for the first time, and that the question of how the Charter interacts with Section 58 of the 1867 Constitution (which lays out the role of lieutenant-governors) was “an entirely novel one.”
Here’s a key excerpt:
This case caused some headaches for Premier Holt last year and the ruling may have broaden implications.
Wonky enough for you? Philippe Lagassé gets even wonkier here:
Speaking of the Crown and vice-regal representatives, did you catch the installation of Louise Arbour as the new Governor-General? I loved the performance of the Cowboys Fringants song La Reine by Sara Dufour. (And Sara Dufour loved doing it.)
In Other News
The Holt Liberals signed a new contract with the province’s teachers but wouldn’t say how much it will cost.
The government also unveiled new details about how the new virtual care service will work.
A lot of New Brunswickers eligible for the new federal dental care plan didn’t get the service they needed.
Agropur employees in Miramichi gave their perspective on the recent “reorganization” of the company’s operations.
Pedestrians in Miramichi (and maybe the curious, too) have a new option for dealing with traffic headaches caused by the Centennial Bridge shutdown in Miramichi.
A Liberal cabinet minister earned a degree at age 58.
Talk about CUSMA is heating up again. It’s still causing headaches for businesses and Trump is threatening again to scrap it.
There’s an election coming in Québec this fall, and this post has a great analysis of the uncertain state of the race:
The Calendar Opens Up
The legislature has adjourned for the summer. By the time it comes back in the fall, on Oct. 20, one of these two guys will be the new leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick.
I’ll have a story on the leadership race soon; this coming Friday June 19 is the deadline for candidates to meet the eligibility requirements.
Beyond that, there are public consultations by a legislative committee on the Official Languages Act coming up this week and next; as of today we are 17 days into the 30-day timeline established by the legislature to get hearings underway on Kelly Lamrock’s “Bobby” report, and maybe his “Alice” report too.
And then we’re into summer, with October looming as a busy month: the Québec election is Oct. 5 (at the latest), the New Brunswick PC leadership vote is Oct. 17 and Alberta’s referendum is Oct. 19.
Slimming Down
If you are new here, welcome! What I try to do in this newsletter is reproduce what I used to do on Twitter: share links that I think a New Brunswick audience will find interesting, mostly about politics, along with a few observations and other novelties here and there. Let me know what you think in the comments.
Things will get quieter politically in the province in the next few weeks, and this newsletter may get slimmer. But I’ll still be here most weeks this summer with all the essential links. Thanks for reading, and don’t forget to share.
Always enjoy reading your pieces Jacques. Insightful, balanced and humorous in the best ways. Thank you for your dedication to keeping the NB population informed.